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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-02-20T11:00Z
CME Note: From Dr. Lan Jian: In the declining part of the fast wind stream, there seem to be two flux ropes: one during Feb 23 05UT Feb 24 03UT, and the other one from Feb 24 04UT to present.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T05:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

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Lead Time: 5.83 hour(s)
Difference: -1.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2021-02-22T23:10Z

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